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The Hill and Decision Desk HQ Release New Political Forecasting Tool for November Presidential, Senate, and House Elections

The Hill and Decision Desk HQ released a 2024 Election Forecast Model that is intended to provide in-depth analysis and predictions for the November 2024 presidential, Senate, and House races. The model considers hundreds of data points, including polling, economic indicators, national and local political trends, candidate characteristics, and campaign finance information, all processed through machine-learning algorithms. In addition to quantitative forecasts, the model also provides qualitative ratings for each race, categorizing them as “Solid,” “Likely,” “Leans” or “Tossup” for each party.

For the presidential race, the model currently forecasts a 56% chance that Donald Trump wins in November compared to a 44% chance for President Biden. In the Senate, the model currently forecasts a 77% chance that Republicans take control of the Senate, compared to a 23% chance that Democrats maintain control. Finally, in the House, the model currently predicts that Republicans have a 62% chance of maintaining control, compared to a 38% chance the House flips to Democrats.

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